Can Biden Win Back the White Working Class?
President Joe Biden is making a big bet, with his $1.9 trillion American Rescue Plan, and the future of American democracy could depend on whether he succeeds or fails. Biden’s relief program will help millions of Americans; it is the right thing to do and it should boost the economy. But the key question is: can Biden draw many white working-class and lower middle-class voters back to the Democratic Party?
Biden’s plan offers massive, concrete benefits, and it is targeted at less affluent Americans, including white working-class and lower middle-class voters. This is a course correction for the Democratic Party, which has neglected those groups for three decades and alienated many of them with its stances on cultural issues such as gun control, immigration and abortion.
Biden’s approach is also a sharp contrast to that of Donald Trump. The former President’s only major legislative achievement, a $1.7 trillion tax cut, was a windfall for the top 0.10% of Americans but it did nothing for his white working-class and lower-middle class supporters. They stayed loyal to Trump, nonetheless, because he spoke to their anguish about losing economic and political power in a rapidly changing America.
How will Trump’s supporters respond to Biden’s program? Will they be grateful to an administration that actually helps them? Will some of them vote for Democratic candidates in 2022 and 2024? Or will they continue to care more about the “cultural wars” and remain enthralled by Trump?
Biden Plan Would Help Poor Whites
Biden’s appeal to disgruntled white voters might work. Forty percent of Republicans and Republican-leaning independents support his relief plan. And 63% of poor white Republicans favor the Biden program, according to Pew Research. These people, who earn $38,900 or less, constitute 25% of Republicans and Republican-leaning independents, so they are a significant group.
If Biden can bring some white working--class workers back into the Democratic fold, this would particularly help the party in swing states such as Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin.
Losing the White-Working Class Vote
The Democratic Party has been losing white working-class voters for decades, but the shift has accelerated. In 1997, the majority of Democrats (56%) were whites without a college education. By 2018, their share had fallen to one-third. That’s partly because more Democrats hold college and post-college degrees, but also because working-class whites jumped ship.
In 2014, more working-class Americans still identified as Democrats rather than Republicans, but that has flipped. The Republicans’ share of such voters has risen by five percentage points to 47%, according to Pew Research.
Why is Biden’s Plan So Popular?
One of the brilliant aspects of Biden’s program is that it is so sweeping. Much like Social Security and Medicare, the plan provides benefits to broad swaths of Americans of all races and classes. Although poor Blacks and Latinos would benefit disproportionately, the plan would help poor whites enormously, too. The program would cut the poverty rate for poor whites by 34%, according to the Urban Institute.
So poor whites are embracing the plan, rather than dismissing it as another “welfare” program, i.e., one designed mostly to help minorities. This may also be one reason why Republican politicians have so far failed to launch an effective attack on the American Rescue Plan. Their constituents know that they will benefit from the plan.
Cash Is King
The Biden plan has some other advantages. The government will pay benefits in cash and quickly, assuming that the program is implemented smoothly. Furthermore, the main features that help individuals are fairly easy for voters to grasp.
There are three main sources of assistance. The law provides a one-time payment of $1,400 per individual and an additional $1,400 for each dependent (child). So a family of four will receive $5,600 under that provision alone.
That’s particularly good news for Americans who have been unemployed or underemployed for the last year. Last year, one in eight American adults did not have enough food sometimes. That number rose to one in six for families with children.
The program has income caps for receiving benefits, beginning to phase out at $75,000 for individuals and $150,00 for married couples.
The law extends federal unemployment insurance benefits for another 25 weeks (almost six months), at $300 per week. These payments supplement state unemployment benefits, which vary from state to state and are often quite modest.
More Help for Families
The American Rescue Plan also expands the child tax credit and makes it easier to receive. The law increases the amount by $600 to $3,600 for children under age 6 and $3,000 over age 6. In a key change, the tax credit will be fully refundable, and families will receive monthly advance payments, in cash, starting in July. Half of the credit will be issued in monthly payments starting in July, and the remainder will be delivered in 2022.
These changes in the child tax credit are effective only for tax year 2021, but the Democrats hope to make them permanent. This feature also has income caps at $75,000 for individuals and $150,000 for married couples.
This approach should enable more lower income families that don’t pay taxes, or pay very low taxes, to receive more cash payments…and more quickly, rather than waiting many months for a tax refund. Under President Barack Obama’s stimulus plan in 2008, the process was more complicated and provided fewer benefits to families that paid little or no taxes.
In addition, the plan provides more generous food stamp benefits for an additional three months.
The combination of these four measures should cut the poverty rate generally from about 14% to 9% for all Americans. For white Americans, the poverty rate could fall from 9.6% to 6.4%, based on the Urban Institute’s estimates.
So it is easy to see why white Americans who are struggling like the plan. There’s reason to hope that the Democrats could make some inroads among white working-class and lower-class voters.
A Nightmare Scenario
Still, we can’t rule out a nightmare scenario.
White working class and lower middle-class voters migrated to the Republican Party mostly because of cultural issues, not because the party has helped them in economical terms. Tax cuts for the rich don’t help blue-collar Americans, and Trump’s tariffs are a tax on consumers. But less affluent and rural whites have resented a Democratic Party that is predominantly urban, welcomes minorities and has not seemed concerned by the decline of Rustbelt America.
Many of these voters may be happy to take the cash but unwilling to reward the Biden administration with their votes. They may continue to care more about issues like gun rights, abortion and, in some cases, preserving white supremacy.
If Trump (or a Trump wannabe like Ted Cruz or Josh Hawley) can hold onto the base of angry white working-class and lower-middle class voters, despite Biden’s showering them with cash benefits, Trump could have a good shot at winning the 2024 election.
Tilting the Playing Field: Voter Suppression
And in many states, Democrats may be at a great disadvantage in 2022 and 2024, even if their policies appeal to most voters.
In over 30 states, Republican lawmakers have introduced about 240 bills to make it harder for Democrats to vote. They want to restrict early voting and mail-in ballots and deploy other voter suppression techniques. They may very well succeed in implementing such measures on the state level….and states, not the Federal government, conduct elections.
And even if Trump did not win, Trump would certainly claim again that the election was rigged. What if the election were close?
After the dress rehearsal in 2020, how would Republican-controlled state legislatures respond? Would they try to appoint their own slates of electors? Would angry Trump supporters attack the Capitol again, with better weapons and planning?
Let’s hope that Joe Biden’s big bet pays off, and we don’t have to worry about another coup attempt in 2024.